Dr Alexandra Hogan

Senior Lecturer

PhD (Mathematical Epidemiology, Australian National University, 2017)
BSc (Applied Mathematics, Honours I, University of Sydney, 2009)

Medicine & Health

School of Population Health

As a mathematical epidemiologist, I work on mathematical models of infectious diseases, focussed on estimating the public health impact of new vaccines. The focus of my current research is to develop dynamic models to help inform longer term planning of ongoing COVID-19 vaccination programs in Australia and the broader region. To do this, I use mathematical models that account for the need for booster doses, properties and availability of current vaccines, the emergence of variants of concern, seasonality, and priority population groups.

Through my research, I aim to help guide ongoing country-level COVID-19 vaccine programs that align with the broader immunisation and health system priorities of individual countries. Sustainable and efficient COVID-19 vaccination policies will ultimately reduce the health and societal impact of COVID-19 for Australia and the region.

I also work on models for for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission and vaccination, to inform target product profiles for RSV vaccines. I have previously worked on estimating the public health impact of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine, supporting World Health Organization decision-making on the use of malaria vaccines in children, and on modelling the health impact of second-generation malaria vaccines in malaria endemic areas.

I am a member of the World Health Organization Immunization and vaccines related implementation research advisory committee . I was previously a Research Fellow at the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Imperial College London (UK), where I hold an Honorary Lectureship position.

E-mail

alexandra.hogan@unsw.edu.au

Book Chapters | 2016

Hogan AB; Glass K; Moore HC; Anderssen RS, 2016, 'Age Structures in Mathematical Models for Infectious Diseases, with a Case Study of Respiratory Syncytial Virus', in Mathematics for Industry, Springer Japan, pp. 105 - 116,

Book Chapters | 2016

Hogan AB; Glass K; Moore HC; Anderssen RS, 2016, 'Erratum to: Age Structures in Mathematical Models for Infectious Diseases, with a Case Study of Respiratory Syncytial Virus', in Mathematics for Industry, Springer Japan, pp. E1 - E1,

Book Chapters | 2016

Wakayama M; Hogan AB; Anderssen RS, 2016, 'The Formation and Launch of the Asia Pacific Consortium of Mathematics for Industry (APCMfI)', in Anderssen RS; Broadbridge P; Fukumoto Y; Kajiwara K; Takagi T; Verbitskiy E; Wakayama M (ed.), , SPRINGER-VERLAG TOKYO, pp. 143 - 147,
Journal articles | 2024

Barnsley G; Olivera Mesa D; Hogan AB; Winskill P; Torkelson AA; Walker DG; Ghani AC; Watson OJ, 2024, 'Impact of the 100 days mission for vaccines on COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study', The Lancet Global Health, 12, pp. e1764 - e1774,

Journal articles | 2024

Gebremedhin AT; Hogan AB; Blyth CC; Glass K; Moore HC, 2024, 'Author Correction: Developing a prediction model to estimate the true burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in hospitalised children in Western Australia (Scientific Reports, (2022), 12, 1, (332), 10.1038/s41598-021-04080-3)', Scientific Reports, 14,

Journal articles | 2024

Giannini F; Hogan AB; Sarna M; Glass K; Moore HC, 2024, 'Modelling respiratory syncytial virus age-specific risk of hospitalisation in term and preterm infants', BMC Infectious Diseases, 24,

Journal articles | 2024

Hogan A, 2024, 'Baby in tow', Science, 383, pp. 562,

Journal articles | 2024

Lambach P; Orenstein W; Silal S; Sbarra AN; Koh M; Aggarwal R; Hasan Farooqui H; Flasche S; Hogan A; Kim SY; Leask J; Luz PM; Lyimo DC; Moss WJ; Pitzer VE; Wang XY; Wu J, 2024, 'Report from the World Health Organization's immunization and vaccines related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC) meeting, Geneva, 11–13 September 2023', Vaccine, 42, pp. 1424 - 1434,

Journal articles | 2024

Lambach P; Silal S; Sbarra AN; Koh M; Aggarwal R; Farooqui HH; Flasche S; Hogan AB; Kim SY; Leung K; Moss WJ; Munywoki PK; Portnoy A; Sheel M; Wang XY, 2024, 'Corrigendum to “Report from the World Health Organization's immunization and vaccines-related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC) meeting, virtual gathering, 26 February–1 March 2024” [Vaccine 42(15) (2024) 3379–3383, (S0264410X24004948), (10.1016/j.vaccine.2024.04.057)]', Vaccine, 42,

Journal articles | 2024

Lambach P; Silal S; Sbarra AN; Koh M; Aggarwal R; Farooqui HH; Flasche S; Hogan AB; Kim SY; Leung K; Moss WJ; Munywoki PK; Portnoy A; Sheel M; Wang XY, 2024, 'Report from the World Health Organization's immunization and vaccines-related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC) meeting, virtual gathering, 26 February–1 March 2024', Vaccine, 42, pp. 3379 - 3383,

Journal articles | 2024

Le T; Abell I; Conway E; Campbell PT; Hogan AB; Lydeamore MJ; McVernon J; Mueller I; Walker CR; Baker CM, 2024, 'Modelling the impact of hybrid immunity on future COVID-19 epidemic waves', BMC Infectious Diseases, 24,

Journal articles | 2024

Nazareno AL; Newall AT; Muscatello DJ; Hogan AB; Wood JG, 2024, 'Modelling the epidemiological impact of maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccination in Australia', Vaccine, 42,

Journal articles | 2024

Watson OJ; Hogan AB, 2024, 'Impact of COVID-19 vaccination programmes in Europe: lives saved and lessons learned', The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, 12, pp. 663 - 664,

Journal articles | 2023

Bents SJ; Viboud C; Grenfell BT; Hogan AB; Tempia S; von Gottberg A; Moyes J; Walaza S; Hansen C; Cohen C; Baker RE, 2023, 'Modeling the impact of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions on respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa', Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses, 17, pp. e13229,

Journal articles | 2023

Hogan AB; Doohan P; Wu SL; Mesa DO; Toor J; Watson OJ; Winskill P; Charles G; Barnsley G; Riley EM; Khoury DS; Ferguson NM; Ghani AC, 2023, 'Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach', Nature Communications, 14, pp. 4325,

Journal articles | 2023

Hogan AB; Wu SL; Toor J; Mesa DO; Doohan P; Watson OJ; Winskill P; Charles G; Barnsley G; Riley EM; Khoury DS; Ferguson NM; Ghani AC, 2023, 'Long-term vaccination strategies to mitigate the impact of SARS-CoV-2 transmission: A modelling study', PLoS Medicine, 20, pp. e1004195,

Journal articles | 2023

Imai N; Rawson T; Knock ES; Sonabend R; Elmaci Y; Perez-Guzman PN; Whittles LK; Kanapram DT; Gaythorpe KAM; Hinsley W; Djaafara BA; Wang H; Fraser K; FitzJohn RG; Hogan AB; Doohan P; Ghani AC; Ferguson NM; Baguelin M; Cori A, 2023, 'Quantifying the effect of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England: a mathematical modelling study', The Lancet Public Health, 8, pp. e174 - e183,

Journal articles | 2022

Gebremedhin AT; Hogan AB; Blyth CC; Glass K; Moore HC, 2022, 'Developing a prediction model to estimate the true burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in hospitalised children in Western Australia', Scientific Reports, 12,

Journal articles | 2022

Haw DJ; Forchini G; Doohan P; Christen P; Pianella M; Johnson R; Bajaj S; Hogan AB; Winskill P; Miraldo M; White PJ; Ghani AC; Ferguson NM; Smith PC; Hauck KD, 2022, 'Optimizing social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission using DAEDALUS', Nature Computational Science, 2, pp. 223 - 233,

Journal articles | 2022

Olivera Mesa D; Hogan AB; Watson OJ; Charles GD; Hauck K; Ghani AC; Winskill P, 2022, 'Modelling the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic', Communications Medicine, 2,

Journal articles | 2022

Thompson HA; Hogan AB; Walker PGT; Winskill P; Zongo I; Sagara I; Tinto H; Ouedraogo JB; Dicko A; Chandramohan D; Greenwood B; Cairns M; Ghani AC, 2022, 'Seasonal use case for the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a mathematical modelling study', The Lancet Global Health, 10, pp. e1782 - e1792,

Journal articles | 2022

Watson OJ; Barnsley G; Toor J; Hogan AB; Winskill P; Ghani AC, 2022, 'Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study', The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 22, pp. 1293 - 1302,

Journal articles | 2021

Hogan AB; Winskill P; Watson OJ; Walker PGT; Whittaker C; Baguelin M; Brazeau NF; Charles GD; Gaythorpe KAM; Hamlet A; Knock E; Laydon DJ; Lees JA; Løchen A; Verity R; Whittles LK; Muhib F; Hauck K; Ferguson NM; Ghani AC, 2021, 'Within-country age-based prioritisation, global allocation, and public health impact of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2: A mathematical modelling analysis', Vaccine, 39, pp. 2995 - 3006,

Journal articles | 2021

Imai N; Hogan A; Williams L; Cori A; Mangal T; Winskill P; Whittles L; Watson O; Knock E; Baguelin M; Perez-Guzman P; Gaythorpe KAM; Sonabend R; Ghani A; Ferguson N, 2021, 'Interpreting estimates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine efficacy and effectiveness to inform simulation studies of vaccine impact: a systematic review', ,

Journal articles | 2021

Prasad N; Read JM; Jewell C; Waite B; Trenholme AA; Huang QS; Grant CC; Newbern EC; Hogan AB, 2021, 'Modelling the impact of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine and immunoprophylaxis strategies in New Zealand', Vaccine, 39, pp. 4383 - 4390,

Journal articles | 2021

Skarp JE; Downey LE; Ohrnberger JWE; Cilloni L; Hogan AB; Sykes AL; Wang SS; Shah HA; Xiao M; Hauck K, 2021, 'A Systematic Review of the Costs Relating to Non-pharmaceutical Interventions Against Infectious Disease Outbreaks', Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, 19, pp. 673 - 697,

Journal articles | 2021

Unwin HJT; Mwandigha L; Winskill P; Ghani AC; Hogan AB, 2021, 'Analysis of the potential for a malaria vaccine to reduce gaps in malaria intervention coverage', Malaria Journal, 20,

Journal articles | 2021

Winskill P; Hogan AB; Thwing J; Mwandigha L; Walker PGT; Lambert B, 2021, 'Health inequities and clustering of fever, acute respiratory infection, diarrhoea and wasting in children under five in low- and middle-income countries: a Demographic and Health Surveys analysis', BMC Medicine, 19,

Journal articles | 2020

Campbell PT; Geard N; Hogan AB, 2020, 'Modelling the household-level impact of a maternal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine in a high-income setting', BMC Medicine, 18,

Journal articles | 2020

Hogan AB; Jewell BL; Sherrard-Smith E; Vesga JF; Watson OJ; Whittaker C; Hamlet A; Smith JA; Winskill P; Verity R; Baguelin M; Lees JA; Whittles LK; Ainslie KEC; Bhatt S; Boonyasiri A; Brazeau NF; Cattarino L; Cooper LV; Coupland H; Cuomo-Dannenburg G; Dighe A; Djaafara BA; Donnelly CA; Eaton JW; van Elsland SL; FitzJohn RG; Fu H; Gaythorpe KAM; Green W; Haw DJ; Hayes S; Hinsley W; Imai N; Laydon DJ; Mangal TD; Mellan TA; Mishra S; Nedjati-Gilani G; Parag KV; Thompson HA; Unwin HJT; Vollmer MAC; Walters CE; Wang H; Wang Y; Xi X; Ferguson NM; Okell LC; Churcher TS; Arinaminpathy N; Ghani AC; Walker PGT; Hallett TB, 2020, 'Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study', The Lancet Global Health, 8, pp. e1132 - e1141,

Journal articles | 2020

Hogan AB; Winskill P; Ghani AC, 2020, 'Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: A modelling study', PLoS Medicine, 17,

Journal articles | 2020

Sherrard-Smith E; Hogan AB; Hamlet A; Watson OJ; Whittaker C; Winskill P; Ali F; Mohammad AB; Uhomoibhi P; Maikore I; Ogbulafor N; Nikau J; Kont MD; Challenger JD; Verity R; Lambert B; Cairns M; Rao B; Baguelin M; Whittles LK; Lees JA; Bhatia S; Knock ES; Okell L; Slater HC; Ghani AC; Walker PGT; Okoko OO; Churcher TS, 2020, 'The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa', Nature Medicine, 26, pp. 1411 - 1416,

Journal articles | 2020

Thompson HA; Hogan AB; Walker PGT; White MT; Cunnington AJ; Ockenhouse CF; Ghani AC, 2020, 'Modelling the roles of antibody titre and avidity in protection from Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection following RTS,S/AS01 vaccination', Vaccine, 38, pp. 7498 - 7507,

Journal articles | 2018

Hogan AB; Winskill P; Verity R; Griffin JT; Ghani AC, 2018, 'Modelling population-level impact to inform target product profiles for childhood malaria vaccines', BMC Medicine, 16,

Journal articles | 2017

Hogan AB; Campbell PT; Blyth CC; Lim FJ; Fathima P; Davis S; Moore HC; Glass K, 2017, 'Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: A mathematical modelling study', Vaccine, 35, pp. 6172 - 6179,

Journal articles | 2017

Hogan AB; Glass K; Anderssen RS, 2017, 'COMPLEX DEMODULATION: A NOVEL TIME SERIES METHOD for ANALYSING SEASONAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES', ANZIAM Journal, 59, pp. 51 - 60,

Journal articles | 2017

Hogan AB; Glass K; Anderssen RS, 2017, 'Complex demodulation: a novel time series method for analysing seasonal infectious diseases', ANZIAM Journal, 59, pp. 51 - 51,

Journal articles | 2017

Hogan AB; Myerscough MR, 2017, 'A Model for the Spread of an Invasive Weed, Tradescantia fluminensis', Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 79, pp. 1201 - 1217,

Journal articles | 2017

Smith RJ; Hogan AB; Mercer GN, 2017, 'Unexpected infection spikes in a model of respiratory syncytial virus vaccination', Vaccines, 5,

Journal articles | 2016

Hogan AB; Anderssen RS; Davis S; Moore HC; Lim FJ; Fathima P; Glass K, 2016, 'Time series analysis of RSV and bronchiolitis seasonality in temperate and tropical Western Australia', Epidemics, 16, pp. 49 - 55,

Journal articles | 2016

Hogan AB; Glass K; Moore HC; Anderssen RS, 2016, 'Exploring the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmission in children', Theoretical Population Biology, 110, pp. 78 - 85,

Journal articles | 2014

Moore HC; Jacoby P; Hogan AB; Blyth CC; Mercer GN, 2014, 'Modelling the seasonal epidemics of respiratory syncytial virus in young children', PLoS ONE, 9,
Conference Papers | 2025

Lambach P; Silal S; Sbarra AN; Koh M; Aggarwal R; Farooqui HH; Flasche S; Hogan AB; Kim SY; Leung K; Moss WJ; Munywoki PK; Portnoy A; Sheel M; Wang XY, 2025, 'Report from the World Health Organization's immunization and vaccines-related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC) meeting, virtual gathering, 10–13 September 2024', in Vaccine,

Conference Papers | 2024

Lambach P; Silal S; Sbarra AN; Crowcroft NS; Frey K; Ferrari M; Vynnycky E; Metcalf CJE; Winter AK; Zimmerman L; Koh M; Sheel M; Kim SY; Munywoki PK; Portnoy A; Aggarwal R; Farooqui HH; Flasche S; Hogan AB; Leung K; Moss WJ; Wang XY, 2024, 'Report from the World Health Organization's immunization and vaccines-related implementation research advisory committee (IVIR-AC) ad hoc meeting, 28 June – 1 July 2024', in Vaccine,

Preprints | 2024

Whittaker C; Barnsley G; Olivera Mesa D; Laydon DJ; Tan CW; Zhu F; Johnson R; Doohan P; Nedjati-Gilani G; Winskill P; Hogan AB; Deol A; Mukandavire C; Hauck K; Lye DCB; Wang L-F; Watson OJ; Ghani AC, 2024, Quantifying the impact of a broadly protective sarbecovirus vaccine in a future SARS-X pandemic,

Preprints | 2023

Barnsley G; Mesa DO; Hogan A; Winskill P; Torkleson A; Walker D; Ghani A; Watson O, 2023, Impact of 100 Days Vaccination Mission on COVID-19: A Mathematical Modelling Study,

Preprints | 2023

Hogan A; Doohan P; Wu S; Mesa DO; Toor J; Watson O; Winskill P; Charles G; Barnsley G; Riley E; Khoury D; Ferguson N; Ghani A, 2023, Estimating long-term vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants: a model-based approach,

Preprints | 2023

Hogan A; Wu S; Toor J; Mesa DO; Doohan P; Watson O; Winskill P; Charles G; Barnsley G; Riley E; Khoury D; Ferguson N; Ghani A, 2023, Long term vaccination strategies to mitigate the impact of SARS-CoV-2 transmission: a modelling study,

Preprints | 2023

Le T; Abell I; Conway E; Campbell P; Hogan A; Lydeamore M; McVernon J; Mueller I; Walker C; Baker C, 2023, Modelling the impact of hybrid immunity on future COVID-19 epidemic waves,

Preprints | 2022

Bents S; Viboud C; Grenfell B; Hogan A; Tempia S; von Gottberg A; Moyes J; Walaza S; Cohen C; Baker R, 2022, The impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on future respiratory syncytial virus transmission in South Africa.,

Preprints | 2022

Hogan AB; Wu SL; Doohan P; Watson OJ; Winskill P; Charles G; Barnsley G; Riley EM; Khoury DS; Ferguson NM; Ghani AC, 2022, The value of vaccine booster doses to mitigate the global impact of the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant,

Preprints | 2022

Imai N; Rawson T; Knock E; Sonabend R; Elmaci Y; Perez-Guzman P; Whittles L; Kanapram DT; Gaythorpe KAM; Hinsley W; Djaafara B; Wang H; Fraser K; FitzJohn R; Hogan A; Doohan P; Ghani A; Ferguson N; Baguelin M; Cori A, 2022, Quantifying the impact of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England: a mathematical modelling study,

Preprints | 2021

Haw D; Forchini G; Christen P; Bajaj S; Hogan A; Winskill P; Miraldo M; White P; Ghani A; Ferguson N; Smith P; Hauck K, 2021, The costs of keeping schools open during the COVID-19 pandemic,

Preprints | 2021

Hogan A; Winskill P; Watson O; Walker P; Whittaker C; Baguelin M; Brazeau N; Charles G; Gaythorpe K; Hamlet A; Knock E; Laydon D; Lees J; Løchen A; Verity R; Whittles L; Muhib F; Hauck K; Ferguson N; Ghani A, 2021, Within-country age-based prioritisation, global allocation, and public health impact of a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2: a mathematical modelling analysis,

Preprints | 2021

Mesa DO; Hogan A; Watson O; Charles G; Hauck K; Ghani A; Winskill P, 2021, Quantifying the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic,

Preprints | 2020

Unwin J; Mwandigha L; Winskill P; Ghani A; Hogan A, 2020, Analysis of the potential for a malaria vaccine to reduce gaps in malaria intervention coverage,

Conference Papers | 2013

Hogan AB; Mercer GN; Glass K; Moore HC, 2013, 'Modelling the seasonality of respiratory syncytial virus in young children', in Proceedings - 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, MODSIM 2013, pp. 338 - 344

Preprints |

Giannini F; Hogan AB; Sarna M; Glass K; Moore HC, Modelling the Age-Specific Risk of Hospitalisation Due to RSV Infection,

Preprints |

Hogan AB; Wu SL; Toor J; Doohan P; Watson OJ; Winskill P; Charles G; Barnsley G; Riley EM; Khoury DS; Ferguson NM; Ghani AC, Long Term Vaccination Strategies to Mitigate the Global Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Transmission: A Modelling Study,

Hogan AB. Mathematical modelling to support policy decisions on COVID-19 vaccination in Australia. NHMRC Investigator Grant (Emerging Leader 1). AU $650,000. (2022–2026)

Hogan AB et al. Modelling the Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies. World Health Organization. US $80,000. (2021)

Campbell PT & Hogan AB. Determining the household-level impact of a maternal vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus using an individual-based model. Centre for Research Excellence in Math Modelling to Inform Public Policy, Australia. AU $9,600. (2017–2018)

Associate Investigator, modelling to inform the WHO Malaria Vaccine Implementation Programme (MVIP). PATH. (2017–2021)

Hogan AB. Australian Mathematical Society Lift-Off Fellowship. AU $3,500. (2017)

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